When nonprofits come to GrowBetter seeking fundraising strategy and execution, we start with a simple diagnostic: where your revenue is actually coming from, which donors are driving it, and where it’s leaking.

Across organizations, the patterns are remarkably consistent:

  • Revenue feels volatile.
    Year-over-year results are harder to predict, even when programs are strong.
  • Donors are lapsing... but the loss is invisible.
    Most teams can’t clearly quantify how much revenue is walking out the door each year.
  • A small core of loyal supporters is carrying the entire organization.
    These donors provide stability but also mask underlying fragility.
  • Occasional grants or legacy gifts create the illusion of growth.
    A surprise grant or two can make a year look strong without fixing the "leaky" underlying model.
  • New donor acquisition dominates board conversations, but on its own, it wastes resources.
    Roughly 80% of first-time donors do not give again (Fundraising Effectiveness Project). It takes 2-3 years to break even (Bloomerang; AFP). The problem is rarely a lack of donors. So the solution is rarely... new donors.

The Real Issue: Development Programs Rely on Ad Hoc Communications Instead of Donor Data

Most organizations have decades of donor data. (Talk about a treasure trove of future revenue.) But very few nonprofits know how to leverage that information to raise more.

Revenue becomes unpredictable when communication is one-size-fits-all, driven by the calendar instead of donor behavior, and focused on extremes (acquisition or major gifts) while mid-level donors are ignored.

Predictable revenue starts with simple donor segmentation, followed by a tailored annual communication plan for each donor group.

The Three Donor Segments That Drive Predictable Revenue

You don’t need a complex model to improve predictability. You don’t need to watch hours of webinars explaining how to break down your list.

Start with three segments:

  • Small donors
  • Mid-level donors
  • Major donors

Then prioritize within each segment using three signals:

  • Recency – How recently someone gave (*the BEST predictor of future giving)
  • Frequency – How often they give
  • Total giving – Lifetime or cumulative amount

This allows you to focus time and budget where it actually moves revenue.

What Donor Segmentation Looks Like in Practice

Let’s say GrowBetter runs a five-year donor analysis for your organization and turns it into actionable insights.

The first place we look isn’t five years ago... it’s the last 12 months.

That’s where your most active donors are. These are the people most likely to give again.

For example:

  • A donor who gave $5,000 this year
  • A donor who gave $5,000 last year

Both matter. Both should be stewarded.

But if I have to prioritize, recency matters. The donor who gave this year is signaling current engagement and is far more likely to respond again with the right outreach.

Recency is one of the clearest predictors of near-term revenue. Start there.

The Most Expensive Mistake: Ignoring Mid-Level Donors

Mid-level donors are the most reliable source of future growth (Bloomerang), yet the most commonly ignored.

Here’s what the data consistently shows:

  • It often takes 3–5 years for a donor to move from a $25 gift to a $5,000 gift—if that donor is retained (Veritus Group)
  • Major donors rarely appear fully formed
  • Mid-level donors are your pipeline, not an afterthought

When organizations over-focus on acquisition or major gifts alone, revenue becomes fragile instead of predictable.

The most effective organizations treat giving as a pathway: small → mid-level → major, supported by intentional communication at each stage.

How Segment-Specific Communication Stabilizes Revenue

Revenue stabilizes and grows when each donor segment has a clear communication plan... not simply more messaging.

Below is a starting point for engaging donors effectively by segment. This is not about doing everything. It’s about doing the right things, consistently.

Small Donors

  • Monthly donor-centric email newsletter
    • 1–2 short stories of impact
    • Clear credit to the donor (“Because of you…”)
  • Four print appeals per year, each with a coordinated email series
  • One to two print newsletters per year
  • Thoughtful thank-you strategy
    • Warm, human language
    • At least three touch points per gift (e.g., warm receipt, snail mail thank you note, impact story via email) in the 2-4 weeks following the donation

Mid-Level Donors

  • All the above plus...
    • One handwritten note per year
      • Consider having trusted volunteers write these letters in bulk from a script
      • Includes quote from a beneficiary or story of impact
    • One additional creative print piece annually
      • Examples:
        • A simple art piece created by a beneficiary
        • A printed photo or Polaroid with a handwritten note on the back
    • Occasional personal outreach
      • A brief phone call or warm voice note
      • No ask—just appreciation
    • Permission to be creative
      • This is where you move beyond templates
      • Thoughtful, human mail cuts through more than volume ever will

Major Donors

All of the above, but tailored to the individual donor.

  • Personalized communication based on what you know
    • Capture simple notes in your CRM (a spreadsheet is just as effective)
    • Family details, children, profession, interests, passions
    • Learn these over time through conversation
  • Do not remove major donors from regular communication by default
    • Keep them in the majority of your communications unless they explicitly request otherwise
    • Automatically excluding major donors often leads to a significant revenue drop
  • High-touch gratitude
    • Short, candid video thank-you from the ED
    • Board thank-you outreach before or immediately after board meetings

The Leadership Shift Required for Predictable Revenue

If revenue feels unpredictable, the question isn’t:

“Where will the next gift come from?”

It’s:

Do we have a clear, data-backed communication plan for each donor segment?

Predictable nonprofit revenue comes from investing in donor relationships, both at scale and up close. And that starts with using the data you already have.

Ready for a clearer view of your donor strategy?

If you’d like an experienced perspective on how well your current strategy supports revenue stability, donor retention, and long-term cultivation, you’re welcome to book a short discovery call.

In that conversation, we’ll look at one campaign, one donor segment, or one message and identify where revenue is being strengthened, or quietly leaking, along with the most practical next step to improve repeat giving.